Disappointing German IFO Survey Fails to Distract Euro Traders from Cyprus

By Benjamin Spier 22 March 2013 09:43 GMT THE TAKEAWAY: IFO business climate survey falls to 106.7 in March, following a 10-month high -> Bundesbank predicts economic growth in the current quarter -> Euro trading remains focused on Cyprus

The IFO German business climate survey declined for the first time in five months in March, after reaching a 10-month high in February. The business climate survey was reported at 106.7, disappointing expectations for 107.8 and down from 107.4 in the previous month. The IFO current assessment survey unexpectedly fell to 109.9 from 100.2 in February, and the IFO expectations survey fell to 103.6 from 104.6.

The results are based on IFO surveys of German firms, and the main business climate survey has not fallen below the neutral 100.0 point in three years.

The German economy is the Euro-zone’s biggest economy, and also one of the best performers through the Euro-zone debt crisis. The German GDP declined 0.6% in Q4, but the Bundesbank has predicted the country will see economic growth in the current quarter. Signs of further weakness in German economic growth are Euro negative.

That is why the Euro declined nearly twenty points and below 1.2900 against the US Dollar following the disappointing release. However, the Euro has recovered all those losses, as single currency traders remained focused on the Cyprus crisis. EUR/USD may now be seeing resistance at 1.2920, by a long term downward trend line from November 2011. A 200 day moving average may provide support around 1.2870.

EURUSD Daily: March 22, 2013

Disappointing_German_IFO_Survey_Fails_to_Distract_Euro_Traders_from_Cyprus_Concerns_body_eurusd_daily_chart.png, Disappointing German IFO Survey Fails to Distract Euro Traders from Cyprus Chart created by Benjamin Spier using Marketscope 2.0

-- Written by Benjamin Spier, DailyFX Research. Feedback can be sent to bbspier@fxcm.com .

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
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22 March 2013 09:43 GMT


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Chancellor Osborne Presents 2013 Budget; Sterling Rallies on BoE Remit

THE TAKEAWAY: GBP UK 2012 Budget Announcement by Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne > GBPUSD BULLISH

The second of two major events out of the United Kingdom today provided another modestly bullish catalyst for the world’s oldest currency, the British Pound. Earlier today, the Bank of England expressed some concern over the Sterling’s free fall, according to the March meeting Minutes, and provoked a rally in GBP-based pairs given the stance that a weaker Sterling could drive up inflation, which would hurt the economy. Seemingly, a higher rate of inflation would not be tolerated by BoE policymakers, even as improving growth prospects remains a priority.

Thus, while the British Pound is rallying after Chancellor Osborne’s budget announcement in parliament today, the focus is much less on the fiscal picture. The fiscal side of the equation remains muddled, with the government cutting the 2013 GDP forecast to +0.6% from +1.2%, and the 2014 GDP forecast to +1.8% from +2.0%.

Instead, the impetus for the Sterling’s rally was the slight alteration in the Bank of England’s remittance, which would allow for “forward guidance,” a policy that the Federal Reserve uses to communicate policy more effectively. Absent from the change in remit was a shift in the BoE’s inflation target, which remains +2.0% y/y.

There was chatter ahead of the budget release that a higher rate of inflation would be allowed to provide wriggle room for more QE; however, with the inflation rate still targeted at +2% y/y, it means that British consumers’ purchasing power will be sought to be preserved as much as possible. For now, this is viewed as marginally positive for the GBP, although the big picture remains: the British economy continues to struggle and is on the third leg of the recession.

GBPUSD 1-minute Chart: March 20, 2013

Chancellor_Osborne_Presents_2013_Budget_Sterling_Rallies_on_BoE_Remit_body_Picture_1.png, Chancellor Osborne Presents 2013 Budget; Sterling Rallies on BoE Remit Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Christopher Vecchio

The GBPUSD was quite volatile during the course of the budget presentation, falling immediately off the bat, from 1.5120, quickly back towards the lows at 1.5040. However, by the time Chancellor Osborne’s speech was finished, the GBPUSD had rallied sharply and recovered to as high as 1.5165. It should be worth noting that the GBPUSD only rallied after the monetary argument was set forth – the fiscal update provided little relief and prompted the sell-off back towards the daily lows.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Pound Finds Modest Rally on Surprising Producer Prices

THE TAKEAWAY: UK inflation reaches a 9-month high, as expected -> Producer prices rise an unexpected 3.2% in February -> Pound rises on producer prices

UK annual inflation rose to a 9-month high in February and sent the Pound upwards in an otherwise steady moving European session. Consumer prices rose 2.8% from February 2012, meeting expectations and slightly higher than 2.7% inflation in January. The CPI was 0.7% over the month, according to the UK Office for National Statistics.

The surprise came from producers prices, which rose 3.2% over the month of February, beating expectations for a 1.5% rise and higher than the 1.3% rise in PPI over January. Retail prices rose 0.7% in February, slightly disappointing expectations for 0.8%.

The rising inflation may have been partially responsible for the Bank of England not increasing quantitative easing in March, as the inflation remains well above the central bank’s 2% inflation target. In February, BoE Governor King said that inflation must be looked at within the context of a struggling economy and trying to subdue inflation may hurt growth.

However, the higher annual inflation was as expected, which is why the Pound rise was attributed to producer prices and not the consumer prices. GBP/USD is currently trading close to 1.5120 in Forex markets, and resistance may be seen next at 1.5201, by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from January’s high to March’s low. Support may be provided by a 2.5 year low at 1.4831.

GBPUSD Daily: March 19, 2013

Pound_Finds_Modest_Rally_on_Surprising_Producer_Prices_body_gbpusd.png, Pound Finds Modest Rally on Surprising Producer Prices Chart created by Benjamin Spier using Marketscope 2.0

-- Written by Benjamin Spier, DailyFX Research. Feedback can be sent to bbspier@fxcm.com .


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Cypriots Look to Secure Funds or Face Financial Ruin

THE TAKEAWAY: Cyprus must obtain 5.8 billion in Euro funding in order to receive needed loan from ECB or face bank failure > Potential Cyprus exit could lead to EU break-up momentum > Euro Outlook Bullish

The financial problems surrounding Cyprus came to a crescendo on Thursday with Cypriots lining up outside the ATM’s of the nation’s most prominent banks. Currently Cyprus needs to raise 5.8 billion Euro by Monday in order to secure the ECB’s 10 billion Euro loan, which is sorely needed in order to save the island nation’s two largest banks, Bank of Cyprus and Laiki, from financial ruin. This deadline comes following the Cypriot rejection of a ECB engineered bail-out agreement which would have required bank depositors to pay 9.9% on deposits over 100,000 Euros and 6.6% on deposits below this threshold. In turn Cypriot policymakers are now struggling to formulate a “Plan B” aimed at generating the necessary revenues needed to obtain ECB financing. The plan, currently being formulated, would include the restructuring of the failing Laiki bank, as well as potential asset-backed loans from Russia, whose citizens hold significant deposits within Cyprus banks.

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If Cyprus fails to obtain the necessary funding needed to obtain the ECB bailout, the reverberations felth through-out the Euro Zone would be significant. Failing to secure an ECB loan would likely doom Cyprus to a EU exit, making it the first nation to leave the world’s largest economy. Up until now, this is an event Euro zone policymakers have successfully been able to prevent. Should Cyprus be forced from the EU, momentum may begin to form among those other nation’s (ie: Greece, Portugal, Spain, Ireland) who have faced painful austerity measures in order to obtain the ECB financing through-out the financial crisis. This “exit-minded” momentum could lead to a domino effect and the EU may once again find itself in the grips of a complete break-up, dooming the Euro currency. This possibility still remains distant, however, as Cyprus lawmakers have agreed to propose on new plan by late Thursday and both sides appear to recognize the danger of a Cyprus exit from the EU.

The Euro fell early in the day and has remained volatile amid news releases out of Cyprus. The currency is likely face continued volatility as the reports concerning “Plan B” the Eurozone’s reaction to it continue. Forex traders may see opportunities to trade this volatility and should stay up to date on developments.

EUR/USD (1 Day Chart)

Cypriots_Look_to_Secure_Funds_or_Face_Financial_Ruin_body_Picture_1.png, Cypriots Look to Secure Funds or Face Financial Ruin Chart created using Market Scope – Prepared by Jason Shemtob


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DailyFX Webinar Schedule: Week of March 24, 2013

There have been some substantial shifts in the fundamental backdrop over the past week. While the FOMC wouldn’t give us a clear time frame for its withdrawal of stimulus, the Bank of Japan has leadership that will eventually look to outpace the Fed, the Bank of England has been given the go ahead for more stimulus and Cyprus has stirred financial stability concerns in the Eurozone once again. This hits on two of the most effective fundamental drivers available – risk trends and competitive stimulus (the polite term for ‘currency wars’).

The traditional economic docket list is once again thin. As for our top-tier event risk hosted back in DailyFX Plus, our European analyst, Christopher Vecchio, will run a special session dedicated to The Cyprus Crisis. This special event is in DailyFX Plus on Monday (see more below).

Trade the News Live with DailyFX(Link)

- Tues (Mar 26, 14:00 GMT) – US Consumer Confidence (MAR) with Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist

- Wed (Mar 27, 12:30 GMT) – Canadian CPI (FEB) with David Song, Currency Analyst

- Thur (Mar 28, 08:55 GMT) – German Unemployment Change (MAR) Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

- Thur (Mar 28, 12:30 GMT) – Canadian GDP (JAN) David Song, Currency Analyst

Free Strategy and Forecast Webinars on DailyFX.com(Link)

- Mon (Mar 25, 00:00 GMT) – FX, Gold and Equity Outlook with Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist

- Mon (Mar 25, 12:30 GMT) – Scalping with Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist

- Mon (Mar 25, 14:00 GMT) – Forex Strategy Outlook with David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist

- Tues (Mar 26, 15:00 GMT) – Trade Like a Hedge Fund Trader with Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist

- Wed (Mar 27, 00:30 GMT) – Australian Market Outlook with Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist

- Wed (Mar 27, 14:00 GMT) – Automate Your Trading with the DailyFX-Plus Sentiment Based Trading Strategies with David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist

- Thur (Mar 27, 16:00 GMT) – High Probability Breakout Trading with Jeremy Wagner, Trade Instructor

Client-Exclusive Webinars on DailyFX-PLUS(Link)

- Mon (Mar 25, 11:00 GMT) – Cyprus and the Eurozone with Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

- Tues (Mar 26, 11:15 GMT) – Trading Q&A with Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

- Tues (Mar 26, 12:30 GMT) – Scalping with Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist

- Tues (Mar 26, 23:00 GMT) – Trading Q&A with John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

- Wed (Mar 27, 12:30 GMT) – Scalping with Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist

- Wed (Mar 27, 15:00 GMT) – Trading Q&A with David Song, Currency Analyst

- Thur (Mar 28, 12:30 GMT) – Scalping with Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist

- Fri (Mar 29, 00:30 GMT) – Trading Q&A with Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist

- Fri (Mar 29, 18:00 GMT) – Next Week’s FX Trade Plan with Jamie Saettele, Senior Technical Strategist

Spreadbetting Webinars*(Link)

- Mon (Mar 25, 09:30 GMT) - Daily Spreadbetting Webinar with Alejandro Zambrano, Market Analyst

- Tues (Mar 26, 09:30 GMT) - Daily Spreadbetting Webinar with Alejandro Zambrano, Market Analyst

- Wed (Mar 27, 09:30 GMT) - Daily Spreadbetting Webinar with Alejandro Zambrano, Market Analyst

- Thur (Mar 28, 09:30 GMT) - Daily Spreadbetting Webinar with Alejandro Zambrano, Market Analyst

- Fri (Mar 29, 09:30 GMT) - Daily Spreadbetting Webinar with Alejandro Zambrano, Market Analyst


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DailyFX Webinar Schedule: Week of March 17, 2013

We have seen incredible moves such as the Dow’s longest run in 16-years and GBPUSD’s biggest daily jump since July 2010. And, these remarkable extremes are likely to draw more activity and volatility.

The traditional economic docket is thinning out in the coming week, but we have an exceptional catalyst in the top indicator for the week. The FOMC Rate Decisiontaps into what traders both looking at risk trends and the watering down the currency are interested in – the timeframe for the end of stimulus.

Trade the News Live with DailyFX(Link)

- Wed (Mar 20, 09:30 GMT) – BoE Minutes / UK Jobs (FEB) with Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

- Wed (Mar 20, 21:45 GMT) – New Zealand GDP (4Q) with Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist

- Thur (Mar 21, 01:45 GMT) – China HSBC Manufacturing (FEB) with Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist

Free Strategy and Forecast Webinars on DailyFX.com(Link)

- Mon (Mar 18, 00:00 GMT) – FX, Gold and Equity Outlook with Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist

- Mon (Mar 18, 12:30 GMT) – Scalping with Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist

- Mon (Mar 18, 14:00 GMT) – Forex Strategy Outlook with David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist

- Mon (Mar 18, 15:00 GMT) – Fundamental Market Forecast with John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

- Tues (Mar 19, 15:00 GMT) – Trade Like a Hedge Fund Trader with Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist

- Wed (Mar 20, 00:30 GMT) – Australian Market Outlook with Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist

- Wed (Mar 20, 14:00 GMT) – Automate Your Trading with the DailyFX-Plus Sentiment Based Trading Strategies with David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist

- Thur (Mar 20, 16:00 GMT) – High Probability Breakout Trading with Jeremy Wagner, Trade Instructor

Client-Exclusive Webinars on DailyFX-PLUS(Link)

- Tues (Mar 19, 11:15 GMT) – Trading Q&A with Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

- Tues (Mar 19, 12:30 GMT) – Scalping with Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist

- Tues (Mar 19, 23:00 GMT) – Trading Q&A with John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

- Wed (Mar 20, 12:30 GMT) – Scalping with Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist

- Wed (Mar 20, 15:00 GMT) – Trading Q&A with David Song, Currency Analyst

- Wed (Mar 20, 18:00 GMT) – FOMC Rate Decision with John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist

- Thur (Mar 21, 12:30 GMT) – Scalping with Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist

- Fri (Mar 22, 00:30 GMT) – Trading Q&A with Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist

- Fri (Mar 22, 18:00 GMT) – Next Week’s FX Trade Plan with Jamie Saettele, Senior Technical Strategist

Spreadbetting Webinars*(Link)

- Mon (Mar 18, 09:30 GMT) - Daily Spreadbetting Webinar with Alejandro Zambrano, Market Analyst

- Tues (Mar 19, 09:30 GMT) - Daily Spreadbetting Webinar with Alejandro Zambrano, Market Analyst

- Thur (Mar 21, 09:30 GMT) - Daily Spreadbetting Webinar with Alejandro Zambrano, Market Analyst

- Fri (Mar 22, 09:30 GMT) - Daily Spreadbetting Webinar with Alejandro Zambrano, Market Analyst


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EuroZone Consumer Confidence Rose Less Than Expected; EURUSD Mixed

By Renee Mu 20 March 2013 15:34 GMT THE TAKEAWAY: [Euro-zone consumer confidence rose to -23.5, less than expected] > [ Negotiations on Cyprus bail-out plan and weak economic growth drag on consumer confidence] > [EURUSD Neutral]

Euro-zone consumer confidence increased for the fourth consecutive month in March but fell short of the expectation amid the ongoing crisis and weak economic growth in the euro area. According to a report released by European Commission in Brussels today, the index of household confidence climbed to -23.5 in March following a rise to -23.6 in February. The consensus estimate of 26 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had projected a larger increase to -23.2.

The confidence indicator measures four aspects in the euro area: the financial situation of households, the general economic situation, unemployment expectations and savings. Output in the core countries had little improvement with GDP falling by 0.6% in Germany and 0.3% in France. In addition, the unstable coalition government in Italy and ongoing debates over the bail-out plan in Cyprus add more risks to the region and may continue to drag on the economic growth and consumer confidence.

EURUSD 1-minute Chart: March 20, 2013

EuroZone_Consumer_Confidence_Rose_Less_Than_Expected_EURUSD_Mixed__body_Picture_1.png, EuroZone Consumer Confidence Rose Less Than Expected; EURUSD Mixed Chart created using Marketscope 2.0– Prepared by Renee Mu

In the minutes following the data release, the euro little changed against the US dollar. At the time of this report was written, the EURUSD was trading lower at $1.2944.

--- Written by Renee Mu DailyFX Research

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
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20 March 2013 15:34 GMT


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Australian Dollar Higher as PMI Indicates China Growth Momentum

By Christopher Almeida 21 March 2013 02:33 GMT Australian_Dollar_Higher_as_PMI_Indicates_China_Growth_Momentum_body_hsbc_pmi_21_march.png, Australian Dollar Higher as PMI Indicates China Growth Momentum Created Using Marketscope 2.0

THE TAKEAWAY: The Australian Dollar rallied against its American counterpart, the U.S. Dollar as the HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI beat analysts’ estimates of 50.8 and came in at 51.7.

Expectations had China’s HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI at 50.8 ahead of the announcement as the Australian Dollar remained quiet. The eventual print of 51.7 sent the Australian dollar on a rally from 1.0374 before the release to 1.0385 just minutes after. A PMI reading of greater than 50 indicates that the relevant industry is in expansion.

After some relatively unimpressive factory output and retail sales numbers coming out of China, investors were concerned that a Chinese growth rebound was losing momentum, however the PMI value of 51.7 may reignite some confidence.

The Australian Dollar has seen a rally in early March as traders pared rate cuts bets on announcements made by the RBA that cuts in 2011 still have room to run. The so called “Aussie” rallied further on the Manufacturing PMI news as expansion for Australia’s largest trading partner is seen good news for the commodities based economy.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
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21 March 2013 02:33 GMT


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Pound Rallies as No New BoE Members Voted to Add to Stimulus

By Benjamin Spier 20 March 2013 10:38 GMT THE TAKEAWAY: BoE voted 6-3 to keep asset purchase target unchanged -> UK jobless claims falls less than expected -> Pound rallies

The Bank of England announced in its minutes today that the vote to not add to the asset purchase target remained at 6-3 for the second straight month. The minutes refuted earlier speculation that more BoE members had voted to increase stimulus, which is why the Pound jumped about 100 points against the US Dollar following the release.

Majority of BoE members agreed that there are limits to what more QE can now achieve, while a minority said further easing could help smooth economic adjustments. Furthermore, most MPC members were worried that further Pound weakness could lead to an unwarranted drop in Pound. BoE Governor King, along with Fisher and Miles, voted for an increase of 25 billion Pounds to the asset purchase target.

The Bank of England members agreed that growth is likely to pickup in 2013. The UK GDP declined 0.3% in Q4, and is now one quarter away from entering a technical triple dip recession. UK inflation was reported at a ten month high of 2.8% in February and well above the BoE’s 2.0% inflation target. BoE’s King said in February that trying to subdue inflation may hurt growth.

Also released today, the UK jobless claims change decline by 1.5 thousand in February, which was less than the expected 5 thousand person drop in jobless claims and down from January’s revised 10 thousand decline in jobless claims. The ILO unemployment rate remained at 7.8% in January, as was expected.

The British Pound found its way well above 1.5100 against the US Dollar following the minutes announcesment. GBP/USD will see further event risk today when UK Chancellor Osborne presents the 2013 budget to the parliament. The pair may see resistance at 1.5201, by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from January’s high to March’s low.

GBPUSD Daily: March 20, 2013

Pound_Rallies_as_No_New_BoE_Members_Voted_to_Add_to_Stimulus_body_gbpusd.png, Pound Rallies as No New BoE Members Voted to Add to Stimulus Chart created by Benjamin Spier using Marketscope 2.0

-- Written by Benjamin Spier, DailyFX Research. Feedback can be sent to bbspier@fxcm.com .

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
Learn forex trading with a free practice account and trading charts from FXCM.

20 March 2013 10:38 GMT


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NZ Current Account Deficit Remains, Momentum for NZD Fall?

THE TAKEAWAY: New Zealand’s Current Account Deficit at -3.255B in Q4 > Deficit may lead to NZD’s depreciation, on heels of dovish comments by RBNZ > NZD Outlook Bearish

New Zealand’s Current Account Balance came in at -3.255B in the fourth quarter versus estimates of -2.950B and a third quarter account deficit of -4.418B. This account deficit equates to a 5% current account deficit to GDP ratio for New Zealand, which has been increasing steadily since March of 2010. The Kiwi fell against the dollar on the data release, but quickly rebounded.

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Although New Zealand’s current account deficit has shown an increasing trend over recent years, the currency has appreciated in value significantly over the last several months thanks to its investment status. This has lead the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), or more specifically its governor Graeme Wheeler, to take a more dovish monetary stance, evident by his comments following the RBNZ’s most recent rate decision. Actions by the nation’s central bank, aimed at devaluating the currency, may be unnecessary, however, should the country’s deficit continue to put downward pressure on the Kiwi. This may take place given a fall in the market’s current risk-on sentiment, which has held the New Zealand dollar up. FXCM traders should look towards the New Zealand GDP data release set on March 20th, which will certainly have an affect on the RBNZ’s monetary policy and forex investors faith in the nation's currency.

NZD/USD (1 Hour Chart)

NZ_Current_Account_Deficit_Remains_Momentum_for_NZD_Fall_body_Picture_1.png, NZ Current Account Deficit Remains, Momentum for NZD Fall? Created by Jason Shemtob Using Marketscope 2.0

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JPY Trade Deficit Continues, But Devalued Yen May Help

THE TAKEAWAY: Japan’s Merchandise Trade Balance marked 8th straight deficit > Export growth may be bolstered by declining Yen value, but power remains in hands of BoJ > Yen Outlook Neutral

Japan’s Merchandise Trade Deficit for February was slightly lower than expected at -777.5B Yen versus estimates of -855.9B Yen and the previous month’s deficit of -1630.9B Yen. Meanwhile Japan’s exports (YoY) fell by -2.9% in February versus expectations of -1.7% and imports (YoY) fell to 11.9% in February versus expectations of 15%. The Yen did not show significant reaction following the news, with the USD/JPY fluctuating slightly following the data release.

Japan’s merchandise trade balance has been on a downward trend since early 2011 and has been in deficit territory over the last eight months straight. This trend may continue as export growth has been fluctuating in and out of positive/negative growth (YoY), while imports have been growing at a faster rate. With 15% of Japan’s GDP comprised of net exports, economic growth will likely a require higher level of exports. This may be achieved in the near future thanks to the Yen’s rapid fall as a result of the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) asset purchase plan for 2014. It is the comments and actions of the BoJ, which will likely impact the Yen moving forward. Forex traders should be sure to mark off April 4th on their trading calendars as that is the next BoJ rate decision meeting date.

USD/JPY (2 Hour Chart)

JPY_Trade_Deficit_Continues_But_Devalued_Yen_May_Help__body_Picture_1.png, JPY Trade Deficit Continues, But Devalued Yen May Help Created by Jason Shemtob Using Marketscope 2.0

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US Housing Starts Increases; USDCAD Rallies

By Renee Mu 19 March 2013 13:01 GMT THE TAKEAWAY: [Housing starts in U.S. rose 0.8% in February; Building permits increased 4.6% ] > [Record-low borrowing costs and stable property prices help boost housing construction activity] > [USD/CAD Bullish]

U.S. New housing construction and applications and building permits in February increased to their highest levels in nearly 5 years, signaling that the housing sector is picking up at a stable pace. According to a report released jointly by the U.S. Consensus Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development today, the number of privately-owned housing starts accelerated by 0.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 917,000 in February, following 910,000 housing starts the previous month that was upwardly revised from 890,000 originally reported. The latest print comes in well above the median estimate of 915,000 housing starts according to a Bloomberg News survey.

Meanwhile, building permit approvals rose 4.6 percent to an annual rate of 946,000 in February from a downwardly revised reading of 904,000 in January. The consensus estimate of 91 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had projected a rise to 925,000 approvals.

With close to record low mortgage rates and increased property value, housing market has gain more confidence in U.S. The better-than-expected reports indicate that the improving housing market helps boost the economy and provide supports to maintain stable growth in coming months.

USDCAD 1-minute Chart: March 19, 2013

US_Housing_Starts_Increases_USDCAD_Rallies_body_Picture_1.png, US Housing Starts Increases; USDCAD Rallies Chart created using Marketscope 2.0– Prepared by Renee Mu

In the minutes following the data release, the U.S. dollar rallied against the major currencies, with USDCAD rising 10 pips to C$1.0243. As the market gains confidence, the greenback extended advance after the report. At the time of this report was written, the USDCAD was trading higher at C$1.0250.

--- Written by Renee Mu DailyFX Research

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
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19 March 2013 13:01 GMT


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Positive NZ GDP Surprise Bolsters Kiwi Value

By Jason Shemtob 20 March 2013 22:25 GMT THE TAKEAWAY: New Zealand’s GDP (4Q) numbers surpassed expectations at 1.5% QoQ and 3.0% YoY growth > Positive economic data should lessen short term economic risk, but RBNZ action still a possibility > NZD Outlook Bullish

New Zealand’s 4Q GDP numbers came in well above expectations with QoQ growth at 1.5% versus estimates of 0.9% and YoY growth at 3.0% versus estimates of 2.3%. The Kiwi jumped following the data release as investor’s fears of an economic slowdown were placated.

While the impressive GDP numbers are likely to bolster the island nation’s economic sentiment in the short term, long term concerns over economic growth remain. The northern part of the country has been in the thralls of a major economic drought, which has significantly damaged the country’s key livestock trade and could cause a fall in economic output in later months. Meanwhile the risk of a rate increase by the country’s central bank remains a mild, but reasonable concern, thanks to the dovish-toned comments recently made by RBNZ head Graeme Wheeler. Forex invetsors should keep all these factors in mind when evaluating the positive GDP numbers.

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NZD/USD (2 hour chart)

Positive_NZ_GDP_Surprise_Bolsters_Kiwi_Value__body_Picture_1.png, Positive NZ GDP Surprise Bolsters Kiwi Value Created by Jason Shemtob Using Marketscope 2.0

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20 March 2013 22:25 GMT


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EUR/USD Slips Under $1.2900 after Big Misses on Euro-zone, German PMIs

THE TAKEAWAY: EUR Euro-zone, French, and German PMI data for March disappoints across the board, signaling steeper recession which is likely to continue through 3Q’13 > EURUSD BEARISH

The worst economic slump since the depths of the global financial crisis in 2008-2009 looks set to continue in Europe, as the core regions begin to feel the brunt of the slowdown. The preliminary March PMI figures out of France, Germany, and the broader Euro-zone all disappointed across the board, with all but one – German PMI Services – holding in or falling back into contraction territory. The headline figures are as follows:

- 04:00 EST/08:00 GMT: EUR French PMI Manufacturing (MAR P): 43.9 vs 44.2 expected, from 43.9.

- 04:00 EST/08:00 GMT: EUR French PMI Services (MAR P): 41.9 vs 44.0 expected, from 43.7.

- 04:30 EST/08:30 GMT: EUR German PMI Manufacturing (MAR A): 48.9 vs 50.5 expected, from 50.3.

- 04:30 EST/08:30 GMT: EUR German PMI Services (MAR A): 51.6 vs 55.0 expected, from 54.7.

- 05:00 EST/09:00 GMT: EUR Euro-zone PMI Composite (MAR A): 46.5 vs 48.2 expected, from 47.9.

- 05:00 EST/09:00 GMT: EUR Euro-zone PMI Manufacturing (MAR A): 46.6 vs 48.2 expected, from 47.9.

- 05:00 EST/09:00 GMT: EUR Euro-zone PMI Services (MAR A): 46.5 vs 48.2 expected, from 47.9.

Needless to say, the data flies in the face of commentary provided on March 7 by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, in which he made clear that the central bank believes that growth will return to the region “later in the year,” despite he himself downgrading the 17-nation currency bloc’s growth forecasts for 2013 and 2014.

EURUSD 1-minute Chart: March 21, 2013

EURUSD_Slips_Under_12900_after_Big_Misses_on_Euro-zone_German_PMIs_body_Picture_1.png, EUR/USD Slips Under $1.2900 after Big Misses on Euro-zone, German PMIs Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Christopher Vecchio

The EURUSD has traded quite negatively following the release of the French PMIs at 04:00 EST/08:00 GMT (it is worth noting that the releases came out two minutes early across the board). The EURUSD touched a session high of 1.2949 ahead of the round of PMIs, with a fresh session low established at 1.2879 after the release of the broader Euro-zone figures. Price has since recovered to 1.2913, at the time this report was written.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

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Australian Dollar Higher as RBA Sees Domestic, China Improvement

By Christopher Almeida 19 March 2013 03:15 GMT Australian_Dollar_Higher_as_RBA_Sees_Domestic_China_Improvement_body_RBA_MINUTES_MARCH.png, Australian Dollar Higher as RBA Sees Domestic, China Improvement Created Using Marketscope 2.0

THE TAKEAWAY: The Australian Dollar fell briefly then rallied as the Reserve Bank said there were signs that the economy was responding to the low interest rates.

The Reserve Bank of Australia released the minutes from its March meeting today and covered issues including the high Australian Dollar, restrained borrowing, the global outlook and Australia’s largest trading partner, China.

The so called ‘Aussie Dollar’ has seen a close to a 50 per cent appreciation over the last 4 years against the U.S. Dollar and despite seeing lower levels more recently, the RBA still maintained that the currency was at a high level. In terms of global economies, the RBA reported that the U.S. economy is experiencing moderate growth with continued improvement in the housing market, with China also seeing some sustainable growth pace. The Euro area remained an area where the Reserve Bank saw contractions in economies and Australian policy makers expected that economies affected by the sovereign debt issues would continue to see weakness. Domestically, the Bank saw that dwelling construction had picked up further in the December quarter and that although indicators of consumption were mixed; growth in that sector was still modest. Mining investment in Australian continued to be strong, but investment outside the sector was estimated to have declined with expectations that it would pick up into 2014.

The Australian Dollar fell sharply against the Greenback, then rallied on the release as investors reacted to the Bank’s view that the results of the series of rate cuts throughout 2011 still had further to run, as well as interest rate swaps pricing in only an 8 percent chance of a rate cut at the next central bank meeting.

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19 March 2013 03:15 GMT


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Forex News: Euro Plummets as Cyprus Bailout Stokes Bank Run Fears

THE TAKEAWAY: Cyprus bailout plan proposes tax on bank deposits > Levy has ignited fear of region-wide capital flight > Euro plummets against all of its major counterparts

A bailout plan for Cyprus announced on over the weekend has pushed the Euro sharply lower at the start of the trading week amid rising fears of mass capital flight.The proposal ties a €10 billion international bailout from the so-called “troika” (EU/ECB/IMF) to a levy on Cyprus banks’ accounts. Deposits up to €100,000 for both resident and non-residents are to be taxed at 6.7 percent tax while those above that threshold are to pay out 9.9percent. For his part, Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades has voiced support for the levies but has claimed to be working to shift more of the burden from small depositors to large ones.

While Cyprus is a relatively small economy – comprising just 0.2 percent of overall Eurozone GDP – the level of panic evident across financial markets likely reflects fears of the precedent that EU officials are setting. As with Greece, investors are transposing what is happening now Cyprus to what a similar course of action might look like were to be implemented in a country like Spain, where a sickly banking sector is likewise at the center of the country’s malaise.

As markets near the opening bell in Europe, this is creating concerns about a bank a run across the Eurozone as depositors scramble to move their capital out the region to avoid a Cyprus-like scenario. This potentially carries the risk of regional credit crunch, which could raise questions about the solvency of some weaker lenders. If one were to topple, a global crisis akin to the fall of Lehman Brothers would not be out of the question.

The Euro plummeted against all of its counterparts at the start of the trading week. The most pronounced decline was recorded against the Japanese Yen, where the single currency fell nearly 2 percent. EUR/USD likewise tracked downward, hitting the lowest levels since December, 2012.

EUR/JPY 1 Minute Chart

Forex_News_Euro_Plummets_as_Cyprus_Bailout_Stokes_Bank_Run_Fears_body_x0000_i1026.png, Forex News: Euro Plummets as Cyprus Bailout Stokes Bank Run Fears Chart Created by Robin Leung using Marketscope 2.0

EUR/USD 1 Minute Chart

Forex_News_Euro_Plummets_as_Cyprus_Bailout_Stokes_Bank_Run_Fears_body_Picture_1.png, Forex News: Euro Plummets as Cyprus Bailout Stokes Bank Run Fears Chart Created by Robin Leung using Marketscope 2.0


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USDJPY Climbs on Fed Bernanke’s Speech

THE TAKEAWAY: Fed Chairman Bernanke hold press conference after FOMC rate decision > labor market has been improved in past 4-5 months > USDJPY Bullish

The following are the key comments from Fed’s Chairman Bernanke:

Fed has studied on the cost and benefit of the quantitative easing. The cost including risks of financial stability is manageable and under monitor by Fed.

The labor market is picking up and the economy is improving. Yet it is hard to give numerical threshold for asset purchasing due to complexity. Fed looks at the outlook of the economy and the future growth rate, and looks for sustained improvements in economic indicators and momentum signs.

Fed will use models and indicators to adjust QE. Improvements have been seen in the labor market over last 4-5 months. Fed needs to see the improvement to sustain for a couple of months in case that it is a temporary change and will weaken again.

Cyprus is in difficult situation with issues in banking system and a lot uncertainty and faces political stress. Risks from Cyprus is not major to US economy right now.

The term limit is not a major issue and he does not have a strong view on it.

Bernanke has ‘great concerns’ for unemployed people as their loss of skills will hurt the whole economy.

FOMC has not been able to reach an agreement on what guidance to give.

Too-big-to-fail is still a significant problem and not solved. Capital is an important element in too-big-to-fail. Large banks should hold more capitals than small banks so their costs are increased and therefore the failure will be limited.

Fed isn't targeting at asset prices; Fed’s success is tied to inflation and unemployment.

Bernanke does not see anything in stock market out of lines according to history. Stock prices are in nominal term which are not adjusted for inflation.

Fed does not have enough firepower to get economy back to full employment more quickly.

USDJPY 1-minute Chart: March 20, 2013

USDJPY_Climbs_on_Fed_Bernankes_Speech_body_Picture_1.png, USDJPY Climbs on Fed Bernanke's Speech Chart created using Marketscope 2.0– Prepared by Renee Mu

As can be seen from the one-minute chart above, the US dollar climbed higher against the Japanese Yen while Bernanke was giving the speech, rallying about 20 bps to 96.10 yen. At the time of this report written, the USDJPY was trading at 96.06 yen.

--- Written by Renee Mu DailyFX Research


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Cypriots Look to Secure Funds or Face Financial Ruin

THE TAKEAWAY: Cyprus must obtain 5.8 billion in Euro funding in order to receive needed loan from ECB or face bank failure > Potential Cyprus exit could lead to EU break-up momentum > Euro Outlook Bullish

The financial problems surrounding Cyprus came to a crescendo on Thursday with Cypriots lining up outside the ATM’s of the nation’s most prominent banks. Currently Cyprus needs to raise 5.8 billion Euro by Monday in order to secure the ECB’s 10 billion Euro loan, which is sorely needed in order to save the island nation’s two largest banks, Bank of Cyprus and Laiki, from financial ruin. This deadline comes following the Cypriot rejection of a ECB engineered bail-out agreement which would have required bank depositors to pay 9.9% on deposits over 100,000 Euros and 6.6% on deposits below this threshold. In turn Cypriot policymakers are now struggling to formulate a “Plan B” aimed at generating the necessary revenues needed to obtain ECB financing. The plan, currently being formulated, would include the restructuring of the failing Laiki bank, as well as potential asset-backed loans from Russia, whose citizens hold significant deposits within Cyprus banks.

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If Cyprus fails to obtain the necessary funding needed to obtain the ECB bailout, the reverberations felth through-out the Euro Zone would be significant. Failing to secure an ECB loan would likely doom Cyprus to a EU exit, making it the first nation to leave the world’s largest economy. Up until now, this is an event Euro zone policymakers have successfully been able to prevent. Should Cyprus be forced from the EU, momentum may begin to form among those other nation’s (ie: Greece, Portugal, Spain, Ireland) who have faced painful austerity measures in order to obtain the ECB financing through-out the financial crisis. This “exit-minded” momentum could lead to a domino effect and the EU may once again find itself in the grips of a complete break-up, dooming the Euro currency. This possibility still remains distant, however, as Cyprus lawmakers have agreed to propose on new plan by late Thursday and both sides appear to recognize the danger of a Cyprus exit from the EU.

The Euro fell early in the day and has remained volatile amid news releases out of Cyprus. The currency is likely face continued volatility as the reports concerning “Plan B” the Eurozone’s reaction to it continue. Forex traders may see opportunities to trade this volatility and should stay up to date on developments.

EUR/USD (1 Day Chart)

Cypriots_Look_to_Secure_Funds_or_Face_Financial_Ruin_body_Picture_1.png, Cypriots Look to Secure Funds or Face Financial Ruin Chart created using Market Scope – Prepared by Jason Shemtob


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Mario Draghi�s Opiate of the Markets

From project-syndicate.org

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From the standpoint of European stability, the Italian elections could not have delivered a worse outcome. Italy?s parliament is divided among three mutually incompatible political forces, with none strong enough to rule alone. Worse, one of these forces, which won 25% of the vote, is an anti-euro populist party, while another, a Euro-skeptic group led by former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, received close to 30% support, giving anti-euro parties a clear majority. Despite these scary results, the interest-rate spread for Italian government bonds relative to German bunds has increased by only 40 basis ... (full story)


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EUR/GBP � Short-term double-top formation still in place

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